THe fruits of contemplation at Duck N.C. about global warming

            I am venturing on foreign ground for this blog. It is around my reasoning on the subject of global warming . It is not the type of material that I have ventured to write about in this blog but that is about to change.
            At the retreat on the outer banks I contemplated this to try to extract what my understanding of the subject is and to formulate a way to process material  that is presented, Below is the fruit of that exertion.

I have had time to crystalize my thought about global warming this is my current state.

The levels of scientific proof that exist are hypothesis and theory , wiki can give a more complete definition of these manners of proof but it is accurate to say that an hypothesis is not as accepted  as fully as a theory and an hypothesis is proven through rigorous testing in a manner appropriate to the hypothesis. Statistics are a methodology used to do those proofs.
As it used to be said ,it doesn't take a weatherman to tell which way the wind blows.
I looked a graph that combined the prognostications of 117 of the computer models that predicted the rise in temperature that the earth was going to endure. Against that were the actual temperatures recorded over the time frame. None of the graphs predicted what was happening. Therefore the proposition remains as an incomplete hypothesis at best or fallacious at worse. I patiently await further data and /or a better hypotheses.
In those circumstances I am and we are as a society  brought calls for action;  expensive ,  with a loss of freedoms ,and a  consolidation of power into the hands of unelected officials. Many of these  calls are often  ill conceived and impulsive.
Those proposals are not scientific , they are social . Richard Feynman said that " a scientist looking at nonscientific problems is just as dumb as the next guy.  To decide about those proposals I fall back on the legal levels of proof as they are designed to judge social questions and how I think about global warming  

                      The levels are ,first ,probable cause ,global warming certainly and easily meets that level of proof.

The second level is preponderance of evidence, and from my observation that level of proof is also quite easily met.
The third level is clear and convincing , for me global warming has not reached that level. As example I have not had a decent explanation as to what were the causes of both the medieval warm period 800 AD-1400AD or the Roman warm period approximately 200 BC to 400 AD and why they differ from what we are currently enduring .
Another example : I read yesterday of the rise of the oceans , this is sometimes attributed to global warming or even that the acceleration of it is due to gw. The graph I was looking at started in 1880  it  showed a sea level rise  which the trend of the moving average  showed a steady increase. The question which emerged was : what was causing the sea level rise in 1880 and since the graph did not go back farther, my assumption was that it has been going on even longer, which reiterates the question of cause.  These and many other questions have not been satisfactorily answered and I also  believe that for the society they have not been answered,  or there would not be the resistance to the hypothesis that currently exists if they were answered. I later learned that a period of time known as the little ice age end in the early 1700's it is safe to assume that the seas began to rise as the planet became warmer and the ice melted. Why did that happen and since is began over 300 years ago how much of the sea level rise is attributed to anthropogenic causes and how much is attributed to natural causes ?
This and other questions therefore in my mind do not raise the level of proof to clear and convincing.  I do not deny or affirm gw but I am not convinced that the hypothesis is valid and that all the social action is at all valid.  Some action might be , I would encourage private experimentation and  public research into various technologies for instance but neither  I nor the society are  prepared to spend vast sums of money or commit to any actions  beyond the most simple and logical. Such as telecommuting and various energy efficiencies.
Each call for social action also has to go through the levels of proof . I believe that the society is best served by asking that those levels be addressed and convincingly answered.
The final level of proof is beyond reasonable doubt, that is doubt to which one can assign a reason. Global warming hypotheses are not even close to this point and therefore extreme social action is totally unwarranted  

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The retreat

             It has been awhile since I have written and  I am beginning to feel guilty about my negligence. I have a really good group of excuses to combat my guilty feelings, but the truth is I have not written.
         The biggest and most important event in my world took place last week with a retreat held near Duck, North Carolina. For those who are unfamiliar with the location of Duck it is not far from Kitty Hawk on the outer banks where the Wright Brothers made the first powered flight. 
         The home where we had the retreat  is a beautiful three story many bedroomed mansion located 100 yards from the Atlantic Ocean. It is among many similar mansions stretching along the ocean for as far as the eye can see.
        Two members of the KM (spiritual friends ) group that I belong to own the property and graciously  every year invite all of us to retreat on the property for four days in October. It is the high point for my season to do this and I am grateful for the invitation. We all bring food , the more physically capable bring food and prepare the meals . I do not have the energy to prepared a large meal so they let me skip that part of the  process. Everyone , I am sure is grateful , me for not having to overtax myself and they for not having to endure the results of my exertions.
        I did make Brownies however, before I left carefully adding water and egg and oil to a prepackaged mix and baking it. Not much admittedly , but at least I could contribute.
      The clarity of mind that come from these retreat is priceless, the sharing is very moving for me and the love and acceptance gives a meaning to being alive that I cherish deeply.
       I do not wish to share  specifics  of all the things said at the retreat  as I consider them confidential to the group but I will say that I watched the sharing move from prose to poetry , from ordinary to sublime , and from individualistic to congregational .
       We watched the kirtan whali , (a devotee to the yoga of singing to God), Krishna Das's  DVD biographical video one evening. Through the story and the kirtan I felt the presence of my guru Neem Karoli at the gathering and I continued to feel that presence for the whole retreat.
       To prepare for the retreat I had been foregoing two treatments  , one , a transfusion of blood. I wished to wait until the last viable moment so that I would have energy and vitality to make the trip and not have to sleep excessively when I was with my friends . The nurses were  taking bets if I was to be sent immediately to emergency or if I could return by my own devices the day after the blood test.( It takes overnight to get the right blood from the blood bank.) My red blood count was less than half of normal, The doctor thought I could be on my own and I thought that I could also.  I did and the next day I received a quart of O+ blood.  The red blood cell count went up 80% and I returned to life. 
            A result obtained from the data on the blood test was that my PSA ,the marker for the virulence of the cancer, declined . 
           The other was to  postpone my chemo for  a week . That allowed me to  travel and not have to deal with the intense reactions of diarrhea and constipation that usually accompanies the treatments.
         I loved everything about the trip , from singing a capella with one of my fellow retreatants in the back seat  during the trip to Duck. (Jesus is Just All Right with Me).  To getting a chance to learn more fully about everyones lives , and generally sharing the bonhomie of the pilgrimage .
        At the retreat during  the meals we would laugh and discuss that which was of interest to us all. One of the days I had a healing  at a lunch that was quite revealing . I easily become dehydrated and the effects are painful. The day after I arrived I was feeling the adverse effects of not having sufficient  fluids in my system. I took an Advill and drank much fluid  but to little effect.  At lunch I joined in while I was hurting and in due course of  sharing in the laughter and conviviality the pain disappeared.  No doubt there is a decent rational explanation for this, but I prefer to think of it as a small miracle. It certainly felt that way.
         Of concern to all of us there was the threat of the rising of ocean levels. There was a book there that chronicled  what was thought to be the inevitability of said event.
        This caused concern to the owners of the property primarily, but to all of us generally.  Since none of us are experts on the subject it comes as  a concern to have to determine what actions are necessary and viable , and also how to evaluate the data presented .
        It lead me to draw upon my experience to come up with a manner to separate the information , emotions and facts into their components and then to reintegrate the information in a rational manner.
        I drew upon my basic understanding of science and law,  both of which attempt to use logic to answer questions , to determine truth, It  was a very helpful exercise   and to do it in the setting where I was located plus an email discussion with an old friend about global warming helped me to come to form my  conclusions about how to evaluate all that I hear and see about the subject.

               I may share those insights at a later date , but my point here is that the environment of the retreat allowed a more trenchant and incisive understanding that I had not previously perceived .

               One of the great moments on the spiritual path is the moment of awakening labeled Satori (Japanese), Samadhi (Sanskrit) ,or Epiphany (Western). The moment is the flash of insight that takes  previous known material and rearranges that knowledge into a completely new way allowing for insight and wisdom to emerge into consciousness. These insights follow a degree of profundity from  the superficial ,such suddenly recognizing where you are  while driving in a strange community , to the more profound understanding of how a system works ,such as my understanding of the way to organize logical thinking around a subject that is of concern to me and a large portion of the population . To the deep personal spiritual revelation that comes either evolutionarily as the West and Hindu often do, as enunciated by one of  my friends at the retreat who claimed that it was the first time that he had understood the poems of the mystic poet Rumi ,to the sharp and stunning moments of the  clarity of Zen, chronicled by mystics and seekers in a large body of literature on the subject.

                 They are all spiritual, or not , depending on the viewpoint of the perceiver . My path is learning that being  ordinary is  the essence of being spiritual.